The wait for monsoon in north India, including Delhi, seems to be longer than ever. The India Meterological Department (IMD) on Thursday said that the wait for the region is likely to stretch a bit longer as there are no favourable conditions for advancement of the Southwest Monsoon till July 7. The weather agency, however, predicted an overall normal precipitation in the country for July.
The Southwest Monsoon marked the official commencement of the four-month rainfall season when it reached Kerala on June 3, two days after its normal onset date. But it quickly covered south, east, central, east, northeast India and even some parts of north India.
The monsoon has covered the entire country except for Haryana, Delhi, parts of west Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan and Punjab. With no rains, temperatures have breached the 40-degree Celsius mark in several parts of north India.
IMD’S MONSOON FORECAST – MAJOR POINTS
- The IMD cautioned that the break in the monsoon could impact agricultural operations like sowing and transplantation of crops, irrigation scheduling, power requirement.
- The IMD said the country as a whole will receive normal rainfall in July, it has a forecast of “below normal to normal rainfall probability” over many areas of northwest India and some parts of south peninsula, central, east and northeast India.
- It has predicted “normal to above normal rainfall” over parts of central India and adjacent areas of peninsular India and Gangetic plains.
- According to IMD Director Mrutunjay Mohapatra, rainfall is not expected to be good in the first week of July and the precipitation activity is likely to pick up in the second half of the second week of the month.
- “Monthly rainfall for July 2021 over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of Long Period Average). Below normal to normal rainfall probability is likely over many areas of northwest India and some parts of south peninsula, central, east and northeast India. Normal to above normal rainfall is most likely to be experienced over parts of central India and adjacent areas of peninsular India and Gangetic plains,” the IMD said.
- According to the IMD, due to likely dry westerly/southwesterly winds from Pakistan to northwest India at lower levels, heat wave conditions in isolated/some pockets over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, north Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and northwest Madhya Pradesh are likely during next two days.
- “Forecasts based on model consensus show that the formation of a low pressure system over north Bay of Bengal is unlikely till July 7.
Prevailing meteorological conditions, large scale atmospheric features and the forecast wind pattern by dynamical models suggest subdued rainfall activity to continue over northwest, central and western parts of peninsular India during next seven days,” the IMD said.
Asked if the gap in monsoon rains is normal, he said, “Southwest monsoon does take a break and it is normal. But it is not usual for the break to stretch so much.” However, under the influence of strong moist southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely over Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and northeastern states during next five days.
Chances of occurrences of moderate to severe thunderstorms accompanied by frequent cloud to ground lightning are very likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand during the weak monsoon period, it added. (With PTI inputs)